Toowoomba offers a materially higher gross yield (5.0% vs 2.7%), making it the stronger income candidate at current prices. Both markets carry similar cashflow positions under current yield and interest rate assumptions. Vacancy conditions favour Toowoomba (1% vs 1.8%), indicating tighter rental demand relative to supply.
Research context only. Not financial advice. Both markets carry distinct risks specific to their location, employment base, and economic profile. Read the individual suburb research pages before drawing conclusions. All policy references reflect proposed changes subject to final legislation.
| Metric | Newcastle NSW · #27 | Toowoomba QLD · #14 |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Yield | 2.7% | 5.0% |
| Vacancy Rate | 1.8% | 1% |
| Median Price | $1550k | $582k |
| Weekly Rent | $800/wk | $560/wk |
| Net pre-costs pa | $-39,000 | $-1,144 |
| Cashflow | Negative | Near-Positive |
| Rent Growth 12m | +4.2% | +5.5% |
| Price Growth 12m | +4.8% | +6% |
| NG Dependence | High | Low |
| Discovery Status | Known | Known |
| Population | 320k | 175k |
| Cycle Stage | Mid | Mid |
| Policy Impact | ▼ DOWNGRADED | ▲ UPGRADED |
| Signal Score | 41 / Tier 3 | 58 / Tier 2 |
Newcastle's median house price at $1.55M now sits in the range of established capital city suburban markets. The investment case is lifestyle demand, coastal amenity, and employment diversification (John Hunter Hospital, University of Newcastle, defence, knowledge economy) — not yield or cashflow. At 2.5% gross yield, this market requires significant ongoing capital to hold at standard LVR rates. The 2026 NG policy change materially increases holding costs for new purchasers.
5.0% yield on Australia's largest inland city (175,000). Inland Rail makes Toowoomba a permanent logistics node: structural demand, not cyclical. Wellcamp Airport's freight capacity is genuinely unique. Vacancy at 1.0% is tight for a city this size.
2026 median house data. Source: realestate.com.au. Data quality: imported. Verify before transacting.
Data vintage: 2026
CoreLogic QLD Q1 2025 · REIQ Toowoomba Q4 2024 · SQM Research · ARTC Inland Rail updates 2024 · Wellcamp Airport annual report 2024
Data vintage: Q1 2025
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Research only. Not financial advice. Data vintage Q1 2025 (indicative estimates from public sources). Verify all metrics independently with local property managers and licensed advisers before making any investment decision. All negative gearing and budget policy references reflect proposed changes subject to final legislation. Consult a registered tax adviser for personal tax position.