Geraldton offers a materially higher gross yield (4.5% vs 2.7%), making it the stronger income candidate at current prices. Both markets carry similar cashflow positions under current yield and interest rate assumptions.
Research context only. Not financial advice. Both markets carry distinct risks specific to their location, employment base, and economic profile. Read the individual suburb research pages before drawing conclusions. All policy references reflect proposed changes subject to final legislation.
| Metric | Geraldton WA · #18 | Newcastle NSW · #27 |
|---|---|---|
| Gross Yield | 4.5% | 2.7% |
| Vacancy Rate | 1.4% | 1.8% |
| Median Price | $577k | $1550k |
| Weekly Rent | $500/wk | $800/wk |
| Net pre-costs pa | $-3,978 | $-39,000 |
| Cashflow | Slightly-Negative | Negative |
| Rent Growth 12m | +7.1% | +4.2% |
| Price Growth 12m | +8.8% | +4.8% |
| NG Dependence | Medium | High |
| Discovery Status | Emerging | Known |
| Population | 38k | 320k |
| Cycle Stage | Early-Mid | Mid |
| Policy Impact | ◆ NEUTRAL | ▼ DOWNGRADED |
| Signal Score | 55 / Tier 2 | 41 / Tier 3 |
Geraldton retains the highest yield in the expansion set at 4.5%, with the smallest cashflow gap of the WA markets. The WA cycle has run the price from the $300s to $576k, but rental growth has tracked alongside. Agricultural export hub (grain port), RAAF Base Geraldton, and Mid West fisheries provide a diversified employment base. Slightly negative cashflow — not a yield play at current entry prices, but the most defensible yield profile among the 7 expansion markets.
Newcastle's median house price at $1.55M now sits in the range of established capital city suburban markets. The investment case is lifestyle demand, coastal amenity, and employment diversification (John Hunter Hospital, University of Newcastle, defence, knowledge economy) — not yield or cashflow. At 2.5% gross yield, this market requires significant ongoing capital to hold at standard LVR rates. The 2026 NG policy change materially increases holding costs for new purchasers.
2026 median house data. Source: property.com.au. Data quality: imported. Verify before transacting.
Data vintage: 2026
2026 median house data. Source: realestate.com.au. Data quality: imported. Verify before transacting.
Data vintage: 2026
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Research only. Not financial advice. Data vintage Q1 2025 (indicative estimates from public sources). Verify all metrics independently with local property managers and licensed advisers before making any investment decision. All negative gearing and budget policy references reflect proposed changes subject to final legislation. Consult a registered tax adviser for personal tax position.